By Bassey Ubong
“The third coming of the Lagdo Dam-induced flood may be epic. May the heavens make them think less of yatchs and Christmas bonuses and palliatives for party faithfuls but focus on things, which, like utilitarians say, generate the greatest value/good for the greatest number of people.”
Other than the Ogunpa flood disaster at Ibadan in 1980, I am unaware of another flood in Nigeria that attracted as much media and public attention in Nigeria till 2012 when several communities woke to find water on their farms, doorsteps, and after some days, saw from a distance, the rooftops of their houses as they struggled to breathe.
The Ogunpa flood generated less cost and less trauma, because of its localised nature. The floods of 2012 and 2022 were national, with considerable losses in human life and wealth. In all the cases, the roots can be traced to some of Nigeria’s worst in public policy after the Civil War – governments have been reactive, rather than proactive, and they suffer from indecision as well as inaction, or delayed action.
Given the devastation of the 2022 flood in Nigeria, should anyone disagree with Maimonides, the Jewish philosopher of the 12th century AD, when he said, “The risk of a wrong decision is preferable to the terror of indecision?” If the first Obasanjo administration had taken a decision, and executed same decades earlier, there would have been no need for the Federal Government of Muhammadu Buhari to have been desperate to pass the buck in 2022 to the Government of Cameroon and to nature.
This piece has become necessary because several communities in Nigeria, which bore the brunt of the 2022 flood, remain jittery, despite the absence of flood water in 2023, because the flood comes, as the scripture puts it, like a thief in the night. This post should be a subtle or forceful reminder to the Federal Government of President Bola Tinubu and Governors on the established routes to be proactive, rather than wait for another invasion by legless water.
The evils of indecision, delay, and inaction have plagued humanity at various levels and societies from antiquity. Can we forget an infamous cliché born in Rome centuries ago? “Roman Emperor Nero fiddled while Rome burned” fits rulers who display carefree attitude in periods of crises.
Take the case of the United States where Oscar Levant said of President Dwight Eisenhower, “Once he makes up his mind, he is full of indecision” down to an ordinary citizen such as Chuck Close who said, “I’m plagued with indecision in my life I can’t figure out what to order in a restaurant!” Inability to take decisions causes disasters in individual, corporate, community, national, and global operations on a daily basis. Two of President Barack Obama’s worst non-actions were Syria and Venezuela, and both arose when he dilly-dallied till Vladimir Putin slotted his hard nose into the troubled nations, which till today, remain shells of their past.
When Ogbaland in Rivers State faced flood in 2012, it appeared everyone from government personnel to citizens regarded it as a flash in the pan. One cannot recall impactful action of the government at local, state, and federal levels with respect to remediation in the first instance. No one thought of long term preventive measures, because no government in Nigeria appears to think in the main from the oil boom days. Why should anyone worry when, as one Governor said some years back, what money cannot do more money can. But flood returned ten years after 2012 in a stronger and more destructive way to meet rulers at national and state levels unprepared.
Two major issues arose from the multi-location second coming of flood in Nigeria. First, determination of its source, route, and possible control, and second, care of the afflicted.
In 2022, citizens were told the Government of Rivers State approved ₦1 billion one can guess for palliatives (one of the most maligned words in political circles in Nigeria). If the government released the money the application with all probability should be traced to bank accounts of those with access, whether politicians or public servants. The money must have gone into logistics and related terms and many of the beneficiaries experienced no flood of any kind. The real victims looked into the sky, and as Robert Frost said, life went on. I am unaware of any other government that made any financial commitment to take care of the victims.
In countries where things work and where governments serve the people rather than selected stakeholders, authorities at various levels would have set up task forces to manage the infamous phrase “internally displaced persons,’ while other groups would have been set up to study the emergence, routes, impact, and management of the flood. The inter-governmental framework would have worked with institutions of higher learning, research institutes, disaster management agencies, aid and relief organisations, national and multinational, and non-governmental agencies at the local, national, and international levels.
Psychologists, psychiatrists, and medical personnel would have been drafted to interact with the real victims and counsel as well as treat them as appropriate. No such thing happened and as usual, God who sent excess water withdrew same by way of evaporation. Things returned to ‘normal’, while ordinary citizens of Nigeria wait for the next flood maybe in ten years or less.
But we should be wiser based on ‘new’, but in fact, old information which the internet and social media blessed us with.
In 1977, during the tenure of General Olusegun Obasanjo as military Head of State, the government of the Republic of Cameroon took a decision to build a reservoir at Lagdo in the Northern Province of the country. The Nigerian government received notice of the plan and we are told officials of the Nigerian government agreed to build a twin dam at Dasin village in Furore Local Government Area of Adamawa State. The Lagdo Dam aimed at generation of electricity for the Northern Province of Cameroon as well as irrigation of over 15,000 hectares of land. The projects, handled by Chinese went through and the dam continues to serve its purpose.
Why did the government of Cameroon inform the Federal Government of Nigeria of the plan for the dam? One can guess, Environmental Impact Studies indicated the possibility of overflow of Lagdo Dam in some years, moreso global warming occupied world attention at the time. The initiating government, a proactive one, planned for possible overflow, because when water goes beyond the built capacity of a dam, the walls must give way and cause devastation to nearby communities. The only way out comes by way of opening of valves to let excess water flow out to keep water within the built capacity.
The anticipated excess rainfall came in 2012, thirty five years later. The managers of the Lagdo Dam opened the valves and water gushed to the Benue River and flooded parts of Adamawa State and who forgets simple junior high school chemistry, which says water finds its own level? Legless water continued to move to occupy spaces on its route. Some of us watched the flood water as it sprouted from the floor in houses and climbed till entire buildings were swallowed.
At Omoku, a team came in from Port Harcourt with video cameras and left the people to sort themselves out.
The plan to build the Dasin Hausa Dam has remained on the drawing boards till today. No Nigerian should doubt the annual budgetary provisions for the project for the past 46 years! We can be certain few politicians and government workers continue to receive allocations for the Dam project year after year. And God continues to watch the heartless characters, but they must be told they are culpable for lives lost to flood water and related health hazards.
From the year of conceptualization, Nigeria has been led by General Olusegun Obasanjo (1976-1979), Alhaji Shehu Shagari (1979-1983), General Muhammadu Buhari (1983-1985), General Ibrahim Babangida (1985-1993), General Sani Abacha (1993-1998), General Abdulsalami Abubakar (1998-1999), Chief Olusegun Obasanjo for second outing (1999-2007), Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar-Adua (2007-2010), Dr. Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015), and Alhaji Muhammadu Buhari for second outing (2015-2023). Chief Ernest Shonekan had no time to do anything worthwhile given his tenure of 83 days in 1993.
In 46 years, eight Chief Executive Officers (two served twice) have been unable to decide on what to do about the Dasin Hausa Dam project. The 2022 flood affected 33 states, while fatalities numbered over six hundred. 2,400 ordinary citizens of Nigeria were wounded and 200,000 homes were destroyed. We use data we see, although we know no government in Nigeria has any data one can rely on. No one will be able to estimate losses in agricultural, industrial, and commercial production and facilities as well as other material resources. Somewhere in Ekpeye, Rivers State, some women lamented loss of expensive ‘George’ wrappers bequeathed by grandmothers to mothers to daughters. To some, such losses should be considered petty, but to the losers, boxes of inherited clothes are de facto wealth.
In 2012, fatalities stood at 363, number of persons displaced numbered 2.1 million, and 30 states were affected as indicated by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA). Between 2012 and 2021, if serious work took place at Dansi, the 2022 losses would have been averted. And who would have smiled to the vault of banks other than government officials and politicians who award contracts along with the favoured few known as contractors, regular and emergency?
The 2022 flood fielded issues of fascination, despite the losses of lives and property. None stood out like the denial of the source of the flood by the Minister of Water Resources at the time, Alhaji Suleiman Adamu as reported by withinnigeria.com of 22nd October 2022. NEMA gave advance warning the way independent federal agencies do in the United States but the Executive arm of the Federal Government preferred to deny the warning the way the Trump administration in the United States denied climate change. With the denials and buck passing, we can be sure the Dansi Hausa project will remain a pipe dream and in the pipeline till 2050 or the year 3000.
We need to emphasize one of the weakest public policy issues in Nigeria, at least from the first coup. All past governments in Nigeria have been reactive when they should be proactive to save lives, sanity, and property.
Over one decade ago, I asked a top government functionary in Akwa Ibom State the reason Ikot Ekpene Road close to the state capital of Uyo faced complete closure due to erosion. He told me with all casualness “action will be taken when the financial requirement for the work reaches one billion Naira.” Government checked the movement of the ravine, but at an unknown cost. To think of the Dasin Hausa project today will mean close to the annual budget of Adamawa State although Nigeria has spent far more to contain the surge at Bar Beach, Lagos than the dam would cost. The Atlantic Ocean at Bar Beach must be contained, because the high and mighty have properties in Victoria Island.
How have citizens handled the flood crises at their level given their knowledge of the government’s ineffectiveness and or lack of concern for lives of ordinary citizens? After the 2012 flood, one should expect builders of new houses to raise the foundations and provide German floor for all buildings, including bungalows. Agreed the flood may go beyond the raised floors (in some cases roofs were swallowed), but water, which seeps from the ground, would be managed where good foundation has been instituted. In general, like governments, Nigerian citizens are anything but proactive, which means they wait and respond to disasters after they have submerged lands, properties, and drowned human beings.
In the area of health, visit hospitals to observe how many Nigerians lie helpless when malaria parasite level reaches 3+. Listen to Nigerians as they complain about the terrible pain inflicted by typhoid when the disease would be avoided if citizens drink boiled and filtered water as well as wash fruits with warm water.
We live with filth as if we are immune to diseases from dirt. If governments ignore waste dumps as we live with in most major cities in Nigeria should citizens decide to ignore the simple act of creation of pits in their compounds to deposit refuse and to burn the refuse when the pits are full? What about cancer, which preventive measures such as minimum consumption of red meat, avoidance of smoking and alcohol among several ‘small’ measures can save families from permanent heart ache? How many Nigerians accessed the free COVID-19 vaccines available everywhere? Why should we bother anyway when witches and wizards are there to take the blame when someone passes on “after a brief illness”?
How many students regard assignments and pre-examination study as fun? Majority of students read during the week of examinations and in some cases become victim of unintended consequences, such as sorting and sexual harassment. Who bothers to fill tiny potholes on our roads or change one bad roofing sheet in public and private buildings?
Nigerians extend their private orientations and preferences to their public lives. No clean person accepts a dirty office, and no one whose personal orientation prefers being reactive, rather than proactive does anything different in the workplace or market or social organisation or church or mosque or community.
Maimonides continues to smile beyond the earth plane when the terrors of indecision overtake the lousy. May we learn for God’s sake, because we blame the Potentate when our foibles, frailties, and goofs place us in difficult and fatal situations. And we should pray for Alhaji Bola Tinubu and the National Assembly to enable them think ahead like the Cameroonians did to save lives, properties, and Dreams, because the third coming of the Lagdo Dam-induced flood may be epic. May the heavens make them think less of yatchs and Christmas bonuses and palliatives for party faithfuls but focus on things, which, like utilitarians say, generate the greatest value/good for the greatest number of people.
Dr Ubong, a writer and public policy analyst, lives in Uyo.
