By Kunle Odusola-Stevenson
For decades, Nigeria has lived with a cruel irony. Beneath our soil lies an ocean of crude oil, yet on our roads and in our factories, we rely on imported petrol and diesel to operate.
Every year, billions of dollars leave our shores and economy to other places only for us to buy back as refined products that we could have produced at home.
In 2024 alone, more than $10 billion vanished in this way—resources that could have been deployed in building schools, funding the construction of railways and other critical infrastructure, or empowering small businesses for the country’s economic growth.
For several years, billions of scarce resources were spent by successive administrations in the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (now Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited) in financing turnaround maintenance of our four refineries that never worked.
More was spent on the importation of refined products to bridge the supply gap in the economy, as the existing refineries could produce enough to meet national consumption demand.
We cannot forget the associated crisis that Nigerians had to endure with the fuel subsidy scheme introduced in the fuel importation arrangement which turned out to be a massive conduit for unprecedented corruption, where the government had to pay billions of dollars to marketers as unfounded subsidy claims for products they never supplied to the country.
But something is changing. A quiet revolution is stirring across the country, one that could rewrite Nigeria’s economic destiny.
At the centre of this revolution stands the Dangote Refinery, a colossus capable of processing 650,000 barrels of petrol per day.
Already running at more than 80% capacity, the facility, reputed to be one of the largest and sophisticated in the world, promises to operate fully on Nigerian crude oil by the end of 2025.
Alongside Dangote Refinery are the modular pioneers—Aradel’s 5,000 bpd plant in Ogbele, Waltersmith’s facility in Imo State, and OPAC’s grassroots refinery in Delta.
Although they are small, these innovators prove that agility matters.
Also, on the horizon is BUA’s 200,000 bpd Akwa Ibom refinery, signaling that even more capacity is coming.
And then there are the old giants located in the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries. Long symbols of neglect, they are now stirring with new investments and the promise of revival.
Together, these projects could give Nigeria over 1 million barrels per day of refining power by 2027, enough to end the country’s dependence on imports and keep billions within our economy.
Yet, like every great story, this one has its challenge: crude supply.
Refineries cannot run on hope. For years, upstream producers have sold most of their crude oil abroad, chasing long term crude oil supply dollar contracts, while leaving local refineries starved.
Modular plants plead for fair allocations. Dangote calls for reliable delivery of crude oil. Even state-owned refineries, rebuilt with over $1.5 billion in public funds, need steady feedstock to justify their existence.
Without a system that guarantees domestic supply of crude oil at transparent prices, Nigeria’s refining dream risks falling short.
And yet, the rewards for success are profound. Imagine an economy where refining alone creates 500,000 direct jobs and another two million indirect ones, particularly for the restless youth of Lagos, Rivers, Akwa Ibom and other parts of the Nigerian Delta region.
Picture industries thriving because local refineries spur demand for steel, engineering, and fertilizer.
Visualize a Nigeria where non-oil gross domestic product (GDP) grows by 3–5% annually, where pump prices are stable, smuggling is curbed, and our nation—not Europe or Asia—supplies West Africa’s $20 billion fuel market.
This is not mere fantasy. Other nations have done it. India transformed itself in the 1990s by investing billions into refineries like Reliance Jamnagar, which today processes 1.24 million barrels per day and anchors entire manufacturing sectors.
Indonesia, once import-dependent like Nigeria, doubled its refining capacity between 2000 and 2020 and turned into a net exporter, boosting GDP and creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Nigeria can do the same—if we act with unity.
Encouragingly, the voices of industry are converging. NNPC’s new GCEO, Bayo Bashir Ojulari, has pledged to deepen reforms and prioritize domestic supply. Devakumar Edwin of Dangote Industries insists his refinery’s pivot to 100% Nigerian crude will be a national catalyst. Farouk Ahmed, head of the downstream regulator, the Nigerian Midstream-Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) envisions Nigeria as a refined product exporter by 2027. And Momoh Oyarekhua, Chairman of CORAN, calls for collaboration, not rivalry, among refiners.
These are not isolated players—they are parts of a single mosaic. Nigeria’s refining future depends on both the mega-scale of Dangote Refinery and the nimbleness of modular plants, on the resilience of state-owned refineries and the innovation of private pioneers.
The road ahead is clear: guarantee adequate crude oil allocations, invest in pipelines and depots, offer incentives for efficiency, and enshrine bold targets—2 million barrels per day by 2030—in national energy policy. If we do, Nigeria will not only achieve energy security, but claim its rightful place as West Africa’s refining powerhouse.
The story of Nigeria’s refining renaissance is still being written. Whether it ends as another missed opportunity or as the dawn of economic sovereignty depends on the choices we make today.
The black gold beneath our feet has always been a blessing. Now is the time to refine it into the foundation of a new Nigeria—self-reliant, prosperous, and radiant on the global stage.
Kunle Odusola-Stevenson is a Public Relations Strategist & Energy Communications Advisor
